Trump Prepares for an Invasion of Cuba

Cuba is “in a lot of trouble,” said Marco Rubio.

On May 21, Marco Rubio stood on the tarmac at the Miami Homestead Airport and told reporters Cuba “has been one of the leading sponsors of terrorism in the entire region.” The Secretary of State insisted Cuba is a threat to the national security of the United States, although he did not provide evidence to support the claim.

Rubio made his remarks on the same day the Justice Department unsealed a murder indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro and the United States Southern Command sent the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean.

The indictment concerns the Cuban shoot-down of a Brothers to the Rescue (Hermanos al Rescate) aircraft in 1996. Brothers to the Rescue is headed by José Basulto and a group of Cuban exiles. Basulto admitted in testimony he is an anti-Castro CIA operative.

CBS News reported on September 25 that the US Army Reserve is examining whether it can provide the Southern Command with police forces, medical personnel, and other support units within the next four months, according to an internal Army message.

Though the message makes no reference to Cuba, the request is for continued military planning aimed at Cuba, according to multiple U.S. officials who spoke to CBS News under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Prior to the Army message, the US conducted reconnaissance operations on the seafloor and maritime approaches surrounding the Cuban island. “Separately, U.S. airpower components were placed on heightened readiness and directed to pre-stage personnel for potential deployment. Those plans, however, did not come to fruition,” according to CBS.

Cuba is “in a lot of trouble,” Rubio said in May. He warned the US is prepared to invade Cuba if and when Trump gives the order. The US Navy build-up at the time was the largest deployment outside of West Asia.

These strategically placed assets set the table for military action, from a capture of Havana’s leadership much like the seizure of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, to a series of precision strikes. And they open the possibility that the U.S. throws itself into the third international conflict of the Trump administration.

It is estimated the US would require more than 100,000 troops to conduct an invasion of Cuba and air and naval support would be essential for operational success. The Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces maintain around 50,000 active soldiers and 39,000 reservists. It would not be difficult for the US military to deal with Cuba’s military. However, urban combat and insurgency in rural areas would create significant challenges.

Following Trump’s belligerent remarks earlier this year, Cuba’s Civil Defense released a multi-page guide titled The Family Guide for Protection Against Military Aggression.

The guide builds from Cuba’s defence doctrine, named War of All People, which it adopted after the fall of the Soviet Union, and envisions resisting foreign invasion by mobilising the entire civilian population through guerrilla warfare, local militias and civil defence networks.

The doctrine derives from the integration of Cuba’s nineteenth-century liberation campaigns and the ideological insights gained from experiences during the Cold War. This concept formed the official state policy during the early 1980s. It was shaped in response to the Reagan administration’s antagonistic posture and the acknowledgment that the Soviet Union would be unable or unwilling to ensure Cuba’s security in a confrontation with the United States.

“The core tenets of this doctrine assume that while a technologically superior adversary might achieve initial air and maritime dominance, it cannot successfully occupy or pacify a population that is universally armed and organized for perpetual resistance,” explains Ronin’s Grip Analytics.

Guerrilla combat operations would require an extended American military presence, thereby elevating the financial and logistical expenditures associated with intervention. Trump’s attack of Iran, for instance, has thus far cost approximately $44 billion dollars, or $1,099 per second. The president has indicated on numerous occasions he is not concerned about the cost of his war on average Americans, or the cost to future generations that will be expected to pay down the debt.

The conflict has created substantial financial pressures on American households, with estimates placing the cost at over $1,200 per household due to higher fuel prices, inflation, and military spending. Independent analyses suggest the total cost could exceed $2 trillion when accounting for military expenditures, fuel costs, and economic impacts.

In response to criticism, Trump said Americans who are worried about the cost of his war are fools. A poll conducted by YouGov in May revealed that 64 percent of Americans oppose the US going to war against Cuba, while 15 percent support it, and 21 percent are not sure.

Trump and his Cuban-American Secretary of State are either unaware or disagree that an invasion of Cuba would end badly for both Americans and Cubans, as past interventions have often led to negative consequences and instability. The costs of a ground invasion are considered enormous, making it the least attractive option for achieving political objectives in Cuba.

If Washington ultimately decides to use force, experts warn, any operation aimed at toppling the Cuban government would confront insurmountable military, political, and humanitarian risks, far worse than the administration’s rhetoric suggests. “A war in Cuba could trigger a migration crisis just 90 miles from Florida, create opportunities for other armed groups to exploit instability, and lead to a prolonged U.S. military occupation.”

In response to a question by journalist Marc Caputo, Trump said it is possible the United States may attempt to abduct the nonagenarian Raúl Castro. It remains to be seen, however, if Trump and Rubio can find a Cuban version of Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, who cooperated with Trump and his Department of War to have Nicolás Maduro arrested on dubious “narcoterrorism” charges.

The abduction of Maduro violated international law by using military force against another state without UN Security Council authorization or a justifiable self-defense claim, according to multiple international law experts and the UN Charter’s Article 2(4).